IEC TR 63039 Risk Analysis for Complex Systems

IEC TR 63036, “Probablistic risk analysis of technological systems – Estimation of final event rate at a given initial state,” has just been released.  It’s a highly technical guide to risk analysis for “electrotechnical items” — that is, systems composed of equipment that use electricity in some way.  So think of this as risk analysis for the Internet of Things, utilities, and so on.

Probablistic risk analysis is a partner to the concept of dependability.  It takes a look at possible negative outcomes and tries to provide guidance on both probability and severity.  IEC TR 63039 provides “a much simpler and realistic approach for probabilistic risk analyses compared to the conventional approaches, and will make it easier to cope with the risks of complex systems.”

So you will find lots of information in this technical report.  It defines both terms and concepts.  It reviews specifying various types of events (things that might happen).  It shows you how to classify event occurances.  It discusses various techniques (ETA, FTA, and Markov) to use, along with how to use various symbols and methods for graphical representation of these.  It suggests ways to both handle and estimate event frequency/rate for complex systems.  And it provides a number of examples to help you understand this process.

As noted, you’ll get a complete discussion of modern risk assessment tools including ETA (Event Tree Analysis), FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) and the Markov technique.  But, as with many technical engineering documents, reviewing concepts is only the beginning.  The report provides you with a wealth of equations to use to in determining such things as quantitative analysis of the occurance of a “final” event, the frequency and rate for repeatable events, and so on.  Many of these permutations of risk are also graphically illustrated by the use of various tables.

Over the last decade or so, the need for better analysis of risk with regards to our systems and infrastructure has become increasingly clear.  The IEC TR 63039 is a significant step forward in providing engineers with the tools necessary to define and rate these types of risk.  Only when we take a look at all possible outcomes for our systems, will we be prepared to handle both routine and extraordinary events.  If this is your field, you need this publication.

And you’ll want to purchase all your standards from a reputable source like Document Center Inc.  We’re a long-time distributor of the IEC standards.  Search for and order them at our webstore, www.document-center.com.  Here’s a direct link to the order page for IEC TR 63039 for your convenience.  It’s available in either paper format or for pdf download.

If you’d like enterprise-wide access to this or any standard, check in with our staff for more information on our Standards Online service.  You can reach us by phone (650-591-7600) or by email (info@document-center.com).  Our long experience with standards and the standards process makes us the ideal partner for compliance.  We’re your Standards Experts!

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Claudia Bach

Claudia Bach is the President of Document Center Inc. and a world-wide recognized expert on Standards and Standards Distribution. You can connect with her on Google+

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